Is There A World Market For Five Quantum Computers, Or Will They Be As Common As Flying Cars?

The title of this post is the same as my presentation at the 9th Arab-American Frontiers Symposium in Doha, 2023. Since the audience in Doha consisted of non-experts and those unfamiliar with the technical details, I took a more accessible approach, sharing my views on the future potential of quantum computing as a commercial success. Some might find this idea surprising, believing quantum computing has already achieved commercial viability—thanks to offerings from startups and tech giants like Google, IBM, and Microsoft, which provide commercially available, sometimes full-stack quantum computing platforms.

However, while it’s true that these companies are delivering something new under the “quantum” label, these platforms are not yet fulfilling the full potential of quantum computing. For instance, none of these systems can currently implement algorithms proven to dramatically outperform classical computers in key areas, such as Shor’s algorithm for factoring or Grover’s algorithm for database search. These two algorithms are especially significant, as their combined power could potentially break modern internet security, compromising the $6.3 trillion e-commerce industry. When companies like Google, IBM, or Microsoft develop quantum platforms capable of this level of disruption, they will have achieved a true "killer application"—one that could upend the global financial landscape. But we're not there yet, and labeling these early-stage platforms as complete successes would be premature.

Although far from being capable of breaking the internet, these first-generation systems offer a valuable opportunity to test theories about potential applications across various industries. They allow us to strategize and prepare for the integration of quantum computing when it becomes truly advantageous. More importantly, these platforms enable us to explore and experiment with potential "killer applications" of quantum computing. I will write more on this topic in a future post.

To clarify further, a "killer application" refers to a breakthrough use of a new technology that becomes indispensable over time, ultimately allowing individual consumers to derive significant value from it. The challenge, however, lies in defining how long it takes for an application to reach this level of impact—what we mean by "over time" can be difficult to pinpoint. That was the key message of my talk in Doha.

Take, for example, the famous quote attributed to Thomas Watson, IBM’s president in 1943: “I think there is a world market for about five computers.” If true, this statement would suggest that even the head of IBM was uncertain about the future impact of early, vacuum-tube based electronic computing products. Just 14 years later, in 1957, IBM launched the IBM 608, the first fully transistorized calculator, showing how quickly the technological landscape evolved. However, to be fair, IBM has since clarified that this quote is a misinterpretation of a different statement Watson made in 1953:

"IBM had developed a paper plan for such a machine and took this paper plan across the country to some 20 concerns that we thought could use such a machine. I would like to tell you that the machine rents for between $12,000 and $18,000 a month, so it was not the type of thing that could be sold from place to place. But, as a result of our trip, on which we expected to get orders for five machines, we came home with orders for 18."

A more striking example of underestimating the potential of a new technology comes from the field of electronic personal computers (PCs). In 1977, Ken Olson, the founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, famously said, “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ironically, this was the same year the Apple II launched, marking a pivotal moment in personal computing. Shortly after, the release of VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet program for PCs, became what many consider the first "killer application" for personal computers. VisiCalc enabled individuals to use PCs for practical business tasks, not just entertainment like gaming, allowing users to create real value and empowering small and medium-sized businesses to thrive. Just four years later, in 1981, IBM introduced its first PC, further accelerating the shift toward widespread home computing.

Finally, there's the case of overestimating the potential of a technology, as evident from the case of flying cars, famously predicted by Henry Ford in 1940. Ford, the visionary who made automobiles accessible to the masses, stated: "Mark my word: a combination airplane and motorcar is coming. You may smile, but it will come." Eighty-four years later, skeptics have long since laughed and moved on. Yet, the dream persists. A notable example is Alef’s flying car, which recently received approval from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, demonstrating that some still believe in Ford’s bold vision. This highlights the challenge of managing expectations for new technologies, particularly the difficulty in defining what constitutes "overtime", or better yet, “near-term” returns on investment. This is especially relevant in the context of developing and funding quantum computing infrastructure.

The most effective approach might be to study the trajectories of successful technologies, particularly in the fields of electronic computing and communication. From these success stories, a clear pattern emerges, which I would summarize in the following steps:

• Develop a strategically managed R&D policy with clear benchmarks.

• Secure interest and funding from key stakeholders to sustain ongoing innovation.

• Identify and create quantum computing "killer applications" that can be integrated with existing technologies.

• Gradually deploy these innovations to individual consumers, ultimately driving a transformative revolution.

P.S. For more insights into recent quantum computing advancements, you might find the 2023 Quantum Computing Landscape report from McKinsey or IBM’s Quantum Roadmap useful.